The evolution of bird flu cases worldwide will be a key factor in the dynamics of the global poultry market, according to a market assessment released this Wednesday (4/1) by the Dutch bank Rabobank. The analysis highlights the emergence of outbreaks in South America as the main point of attention this year and sees the possible arrival of the virus in Brazil as something with the potential to impact business worldwide. “The experience with the virus in Europe and North America increases concerns about the rest of South America, particularly if bird flu reaches the main producing regions of Brazil, which could impact markets globally,” the document points out, highlighting that official health control programs and the biosecurity practiced in the sector will be strategic to avoid such a scenario. “Measures to reduce the risk of contamination have already been reinforced by the sector. At the same time, bird flu can also bring opportunities to Brazil, especially in Europe and Asia, where supply is low,” the bank highlights. With this, Rabobank’s forecast for the first quarter is a 4% to 5% growth in Brazilian exports this year with a drop in domestic consumption in 2023.
“With the price of beef falling since the end of the first quarter of 2022 while chicken prices remained stable, the competitiveness of beef has increased and poultry consumption has begun to show signs of saturation. With little difference in the price of animal proteins, we project that this scenario will continue in early 2023, given the strong cultural appeal of beef that could favor a recovery in consumption,” conclude Rabobank analysts.
Source: AviSite