The global coffee supply balance in the 2023/24 season is expected to be almost balanced between production and consumption, as the Brazilian crop will grow only slightly this year, Rabobank said in a report released on Wednesday (1st).
The Dutch bank now sees a small surplus of just 1.6 million 60-kg bags in the global coffee supply balance in 2023/24. This is below the previous estimate, which was 4 million bags.
The bank estimated Brazil’s crop at 67.1 million bags for 2023, compared with 63.2 million bags in 2022.
Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities research, said in the report that despite general concerns about demand, it should still grow, albeit at a slower rate.
The report predicts a global increase of 1.6%, “well below the typical annual growth rate of 2.3% seen in the two decades prior to the Covid-19 pandemic”.
Coffee production in other countries
A separate report from the bank the previous day confirmed a drop in volume sales by some major coffee companies in the United States, the world’s largest consumer, following sharp price increases.
Rabobank expects Colombia’s production to recover from a weak 2022/23 season, when the country — the world’s second-largest producer of arabica coffee — harvested just 11.8 million bags. It sees Colombian coffee production at 14 million bags in 2023/24.
Vietnam’s crop is expected to grow to 29.5 million bags in 2023/24. The Asian country is the world’s largest producer of robusta, a type widely used to make instant coffee.
Total global coffee demand in 2023/24 was estimated at 173.2 million bags, while production was projected at 174.8 million bags.
Source: Canal Rural
Coffee: Estimate for global supply surplus is reduced
