The financial market has raised its forecast for economic growth this year. According to the Focus bulletin, released this Monday (10) by the Central Bank (BC), the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will close 2024 at 2.09%, the same rate as four weeks ago. Last week, the estimate was that growth would be 2.05%. For 2025 and 2026, the forecast is for growth of 2%.
The financial market also raised its inflation projection for this year from 3.88% last week to 3.9%. Four weeks ago, the projection for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was 3.76%
The estimate for 2024 is within the range of the inflation target that should be pursued by the BC. Defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), the target is 3%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points up or down. In other words, the lower limit is 1.5% and the upper limit is 4.5%.
Focus brings the forecasts of economists and financial market analysts consulted by the Central Bank. For 2025, the analysts also raised the inflation projection from 3.77% to 3.78%.
For 2026, the forecast is that inflation will be 3.6% and, in 2027, 3.5%.
The bulletin maintained the forecast for the basic interest rate, the Selic, for this year. According to Focus, the Selic should close 2024 at 10.25%. The rate is currently at 10.5%.
Four weeks ago, the market forecast was that the index would be at 9.75%.
Analysts maintained the exchange rate forecast for 2024 at R$5.05. Four weeks ago, the forecast was that the US dollar would be at R$5.00.
For 2025, the projection is that the dollar will remain at R$5.05. For 2026, the estimate is that the exchange rate will close at R$5.10 and for 2027, at R$5.11.
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Source: Agência Brasil