Cepea, 01/05/2023 – Since 2019, the performance of Brazilian beef exports has been a key factor in pricing for the national beef cattle chain. In 2023, foreign sales should once again continue to influence domestic prices, but domestic demand and, above all, the recovery in supply in the field tend to be important factors in price behavior. In the case of foreign sales, China should continue to be the largest destination for Brazilian beef, but the Asian country’s recent stance on combating new cases of COVID-19 and efforts to recover pork production may weaken the intense pace of international purchases. In view of this, it is essential that the national export sector continues to strengthen relations with other important meat destinations. The high dollar also tends to keep foreign sales of the protein attractive. Regarding domestic demand, the new political and economic scenario may increase – albeit initially – beef consumption, given the possible reduction in the pace of inflation and new social incentives. In the field, Brazilian production has been showing signs of recovery in the first three quarters of 2022 – both in terms of the volume of animals slaughtered and the quantity of meat per head (higher productivity) – a scenario that may continue in 2023, especially in the first half of the year. On the other hand, production costs in the field remain quite high, a scenario that may discourage livestock farmers and limit the number of animals in confinement in the second half of the year.
Source: Cepea