High logistics costs and queues at ports weighed on domestic prices
According to a market analysis by Grão Direto, Brazilian soybeans ended last week under strong pressure. The end of subsidies from the National Treasury for rural credit lines under the Safra Plan, which occurred on February 21, increased uncertainty for producers. In addition, high logistics costs and queues at ports weighed on domestic prices, while premiums continued to fall.
On the international market, soybeans on the Chicago Stock Exchange registered a slight appreciation. The March 2025 contract closed at US$10.39 per bushel (+0.19%), while the May contract closed at US$10.57 (+0.38%). The dollar rose 0.53%, closing the week at R$5.73. Despite this scenario, soybeans on the Brazilian physical market showed a slight depreciation, reflecting supply pressure.
What to expect from the soybean market in the coming days?
For the coming week, the sector will remain alert to the consequences of the suspension of credit lines from the Safra Plan, with direct impacts on financing for the 2025 harvest. Without subsidized credit, producers will have to resort to market interest rates, increasing production costs and possibly reducing the planted area.
Another factor influencing the market is the progress of the soybean harvest in Brazil. The break in the rains has accelerated work in the fields, increasing supply and creating logistical challenges. The harvest could reach 167 to 170 million tons, boosting exports, which should reach 105.5 million tons, according to the USDA. However, high production could put pressure on domestic prices due to increased demand for transportation.
In addition, the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) chose to maintain the biodiesel blend at 14%, postponing the increase to 15%. This decision reduces domestic demand for soybeans and impacts the profitability of the production chain. If the measure is revised in the coming months, demand could increase, increasing the premiums paid to producers.
Based on these factors, the market is likely to face a week of price pressure, with tight logistics and uncertainties in rural credit. Meanwhile, the dollar may have ended its upward cycle, which also influences Brazilian exports.