The 2023/24 season that starts in April in the Center-South of Brazil may register an increase in sugarcane production, due to higher productivity. Estimates indicate that the Center-South can produce from 560 to 595 million tons of sugarcane, against 538.98 million tons in the current 2022/23 season (data up to December 16), according to data from Unica. As for the production mix, there is still no final position for the plants, but among the main factors that should lead to this decision are the direction of the current federal government and the price policy to be adopted by Petrobras, which can define competitiveness relative of ethanol to gasoline. For the time being, estimates are that sugar production in the Center-South region will grow to between 36 and 37 million tons in the 2023/24 season.
The national sugar-energy sector begins 2023 still uncertain about the production of sugarcane in the 2023/24 harvest in the Center-South region of the country, which officially begins in April. According to Cepea researchers, consultancies that make estimates differ in projected volumes by around 40 million tons, but all indicate some increase in crushing. For ethanol, specifically, a prospective analysis of the market must address international conditions foreseen for fossil fuels, even if there is still no definition on the price transfer policy to be adopted by Petrobras. Fuel market analysts consider that, in 2023, the average price of oil should be below that seen in 2022, based on the slowdown of the world economy. Despite the expected reduction in the price of fossil fuels in 2023, this should still operate at levels higher than those registered in 2020 and 2021, which minimizes the “ceiling” effect that is adverse to the renewable fuel market. In addition to the speed with which international prices for oil and derivatives are passed on to domestic prices, other factors cause great uncertainty about the price levels that will prevail in the domestic market for renewable fuels, especially the exemption from federal taxes (PIS/Cofins zeroed ). Other factors to be considered are the continuity of the setting of the ICMS rate ceiling and the reduction of the calculation base for this tax by the states.