With the prospect of harvesting the largest soybean crop in history, estimated at over 153 million tons, Brazilian shipments of the grain are expected to reach superlative numbers, as is crushing.
Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to total 93 million tons in 2023, up from the 78.9 million indicated for 2022. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand framework, released by Safras & Mercado, and indicates an increase of 18% between one season and the next.
The consultancy firm indicates a crushing of 52 million tons in 2023 and 50 million tons in 2022, with a 4% increase between one season and the next. In November, the estimate was 50 million tons. Safras indicates imports of 100 thousand tons for 2023, a 76% drop compared to 2022.
Total soybean demand
In relation to the 2023 season, the total soybean supply is expected to increase by 16%, reaching 157.198 million tons. Total demand is projected by the consultancy at 148.5 million tons, growing 12% over the previous year. Thus, final stocks are expected to increase by 133%, rising from 3.72 million to 8.698 million tons.
Safras & Mercado is working with a soybean meal production of 40.05 million tons in 2023, up 4%. Exports are expected to fall by 3% to 19.8 million tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 19 million, increasing by 6%. Stocks are expected to increase by 56% to 3.48 million tons. Soybean oil production is expected to increase by 4% to 10.6 million tons. Brazil is expected to export 1.8 million tons, down 31%. Domestic consumption is expected to increase by 16% to 8.9 million tons. The use of biodiesel is expected to increase by 19% to 5 million tons. Stocks are expected to fall by 16% to 408 thousand tons.
Source: Canal Rural